Littlewood's Law and UPB

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Littlewood's Law and UPB

Postby stcordova » Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:09 am

I suppose there is not an exact right or wrong answer to the question of "what qualifies as a miracle", but I suppose for each person they have their threshold for what would qualify as a miracle. This question is relevant to the question of miraculous special creation.

There are statistical miracles that are real, and then possibly those that aren't real miracles like those that follow Littlewood's Law:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Littlewood%27s_law

>Littlewood's law states that a person can expect to experience an event with odds of one in a million (defined by the law as a "miracle") at the rate of about one per month.

I myself have witnessed at least a 4 to 4.5 sigma event in the casinos (on the order of 1 in 10,000 to several hundred thousand)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_ ... _deviation

Some casino sharks I know of, like Bob Dancer, make a living betting on remote events like Royal Flush in Video Poker which has odds of 1 in 40,000+ events. He would literally spend months in front of such machines, and eventually became a millionaire:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Dancer

In the world of ID something exceeding the Universal Probability Bound (UPB) is considered practically a miracle:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal ... lity_bound

which an event that happens about 1 in 10^150.

Atheist Richard Dawkins has effectively said nothing would persuade him of a miracle even if he witnessed it before his eyes as he would argue he was hallucinating. His basis for believing he was hallucinating was the "fact" that Darwinian evolution explains away the need for God.

https://shadowtolight.wordpress.com/201 ... ce-of-god/

Now at a personal level, I frame the question as, "what level of improbability would you be willing to wager your soul?"

Imho, God had provided lots of examples in life that exceed the UPB. When people like Eugene Koonin have to invoke multiple universes to explain the miracle of life, then life is a miracle in my book.
stcordova
 
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